Randalls Department Stores Essay Example for Free

Randalls Department Stores Essay Department stores encountered a quandary surrounding their pricing strategies: Should they continue to pursue Every Day Low Pricing strategies coupled with frequent promotions or determine a narrow focus on one or the other? If this is preferable, then which one will reap the biggest benefits for the department store? Competitors were aggressively promoted their established brand promotions with more fervor than ever, and Randall’s was slipping in market dominance. A decision had to be made regarding their pricing policy henceforth. Sales data shows that Every Day Low Pricing was not a preferable strategy. Armed with this knowledge, Randall’s must execute a strategy of changing prices so that there is no confusion with the consumer as to what they can provide: Quality products at consistently low prices. With the elimination of erratic and deeply discounted promotions, Randall’s can begin a new era of consistent sales cycles and profitable returns in a marketing environment which is receptive to this development. #1 – There are several distinct advantages to having a more stable and single-level pricing structure. A commitment to this would mean a significant decline in store promotions, but it can be argued that the benefits outweigh the detriments. First, the money that could be saved on largely eliminating sales events accumulates to become a substantial savings pot for the company per year. Secondly, staff members would not be so taxed. Process adjustments borne by the need to honor their guarantee of matching a competitor’s price or paying back the difference if they were to reduce their own requires extra staff that is unnecessary under a stable pricing structure. Another benefit of this strategy is a better inventory turnover ratio. Daily sales can be better predicted and more consistent when the prices to not fluctuate constantly. The cost of residual merchandise to be sold in clearance events at the end of the season is too great when Randall’s is forced to mark these down at even deeper price discounts. This strategic advantage also spawns another: a lesser chance of stockouts. These occurred when a popular item was discounted unnecessarily. The item sold so fast that there were no more left to sell, and those products would have sold regardless without a significant discount. Stockouts can be recognized as revenue forgone when a stable pricing strategy is not implemented. This strategy enables the merchants to be able to dedicate more time and effort to planning their calculated assortment coupled with enhanced service measures. With this comes the success experienced when loyalty to the Randall’s brand is fostered through excellent customer care and superior product presentation established. A store-wide adoption of stable pricing could allow Randall’s to establish a reputation for good value, even in the sea of competitors who continued their fierce promotions. #2 – The introduction of a more leveled pricing was largely unsuccessful in many categories, but successful in certain others. The children’s clothing department enjoyed a relative price inelastic demand structure. This department enjoyed great success derived from implementing Everyday Low Pricing (EDLP) because the children’s merchandise sold carried a lower initial mark-up than formerly and was scarcely promoted at discount prices, if even once a season. The reason EDLP fell flat in many other areas, including jewelry and men’s suits, is because the quality perception of jewelry and suits can be compromised when prices are low from the outset with peripheral promotions going on, consumers anticipate similar discounts on these premier items when they are already at low prices. #3 – In the future, Randall’s should try to stabilize prices going forward. This recommendation comes in light of the fact that the only department which thrived under was Children’s. But there has already been too much damage done in the perceptual minds of the Randall’s consumers – their image has been compromised. The confusion as to whether Randall’s is a more like a Marshall’s or like a JC Penny’s. With a consistent commitment to lower-level initial mark-ups with few discount promotions, the short surges in revenue seen by sales events will not be as great as the steady revenue brought by the sales of a consumer confident in the quality and competitive price of the Randall’s item. Randall’s can’t follow in the footsteps of high-profile competitor Prescott’s and run aggressive sales events if they are not committed to promoting as hard, if not harder than this competitor. The sales will fall short every time and leave Emily ; Caroline Randall back where they started – riding the promotion wave, with the breaker close on the horizon. Please see Appendix A for a detailing of the specific plan of execution for Randall’s executives to changes prices and stabilize them store-wide. With this plan of action, Randall’s can be armed for an era of consistent pricing and steady sales cycles – at no expense to their quality perception.

Technology Forecasting Essay

Technology Forecasting Essay The various mathematical models being used to carry out forecasts sometimes lead to significant errors. This occurs because the development of new relationships is not taken into account and possible trends changes are considered negligible. A major failure in forecasting arises from the fact that social and political issues are not taken into consideration when forecasting is carried out. It is impossible to predict the future based only on past data. The models that do that are actually excluding qualitative parameters such as the opinion of the individuals. Therefore it is essential to use a different method for dealing with these problems. According to the theory of Godet, the future is not a continuation of the past but an â€Å"outcome of the wishes of various actors and the constraints imposed on them by the environment† (Godet 1982). The configuration of prices within an energy market depends a lot on the balance between the supply and demand for energy. In order to evaluate future energy price scenarios, it is necessary to mention the parameters that affect the supply-demand balance. In 1, some typical parameters are presented. Economic growth refers only to the quantity of goods and services produced. Energy is actually the driving force that moves every economic activity. The economy can be set in motion by specific activities that convert energy from naturally sources (e.g. solar, heat, wind, running water, fossil fuels and chemicals) into forms that will be used to produce goods and services. Eventually, a high economic growth rate implies urgent needs concerning the uninterrupted supply of energy. In response to that, the infrastructure network may choose to readjust the price of energy in order to cover the demand for stable power (Alam 2006). According to Shafiee and Topal (2008), high prices might indicate the threat of a physical scarcity of fossil fuels (e.g. oil, gas). If production cost increases, then producers will try to pass this cost to customers. Eventually, the price of energy will rise. When the population increases steadily and in combination with the desire for better living conditions, the demand for energy will increase too. This leads to the requirement for additional energy production which eventually will increase prices. When an energy market is characterized by the domination of one or at least two or three suppliers, then these companies may take advantage of the surge in demand and increase prices in order to make profits and cover financial losses. Environmental taxation is a tool that can be used to meet environmental and national objectives. In the case of energy production, the pollutant will try to pass this additional cost to the customer. Eventually, the inability of the producer to comply with specific rules concerning the environment, will force the consumers to pay more for the same amount of energy. 2) Among the elements that can influence the procedure of energy price planning, there are some parameters that can be quantified, such as population, economic growth, energy consumption, type of market and greenhouse gas emissions. According to 2, three possible scenarios concerning the evolution of the earths population are presented. By taking as a typical reference point the year 2050, the difference between the final results of the three scenarios is rather large. The current population of earth according to U.S. Census Bureau (2009) is 6,792,134,536 billions. This number compared with the three different results reveals three different change rates. Table 1: (Source: United Nations 2004). Current Population Scenario High Scenario Medium Scenario Low 6.79 billions 10.6 billions 8.9 billions 7.4 billions Change concerning current situation + 56.11% + 31.07% +8.98% Taking into consideration the current population of earth and the three scenarios, someone may conclude that the low scenario is impossible to occur in the future. If something unexpected takes place (e.g. fast spread of a certain virus, war, births control etc.) slight changes may occur and the three scenarios might arise in a different form. Another parameter that can affect the future scenarios of energy pricing is the magnitude of economic growth. Economic growth is often measured through the measurement of gross domestic product (GDP).According to 3, the average annual increase for the period 1981-2008, compared to the GDP of 1980 is 1334.56%. If someone takes into account the projections indicated by the red color, the average increase for the 34 year period is 1773.29%. The PPC S.A. (2009) generates 85% of the countrys electricity and holds 91% of lignite exploitation rights in Greece. Despite the liberalization of the electricity wholesale market which started in 2001, the PPC continues to enjoy a monopoly over access to lignite (EUbusiness 2009). Partially affected by this phenomenon, the price of electricity in Greece started to rise after the so-called liberalization (RIZOSPASTIS 2002; NAFTEMPORIKI 2005; RAE 2007; Media2Day Publishing S.A. 2007; iNews.gr 2009). The emissions of carbon dioxide are a parameter that can introduce an additional cost for every country. This is because the emissions that occur from the consumption of fossil fuels, provided that they are greater than a specific limit, are accompanied by a certain amount of money that will have to be submitted by the pollutant. According to the most recent plan for the emissions rights from 2008 to 2012, the following limits/emissions rights are attributed to the sector of electricity generation (Voutsadakis 2008): Total quantity: 328 million tones of carbon dioxide Electricity generation sector: 230 million tones of carbon dioxide PPC: 220 million tones of carbon dioxide If the structure of the electricity generation sector in Greece remains the same, beginning from 2013, 2.2 billion euros will have to be submitted for purchasing additional emissions rights. This is equal to 35 more euros for every MWh produced. Consequently the price of electricity will increase by approximately 45% compared to the current prices (Voutsadakis 2008). As mentioned in section 1, numerous parameters, some of which can easily be quantified, have to be taken into account in order to form future scenarios concerning the price of energy. Godet in â€Å"La Prospective† (Godet 1982) emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerning the forecasting process. Although quantitative methods are characterized by a high reliability, especially in short term forecasts, in the case of long time periods quantitative methods present many blind spots. This is justified by the fact that in a long time period, the probability for a person to face unexpected events is rather high. For this reason, it is not proper to depend only on mathematical methods to make forecasts. What is needed is a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods. This is exactly what Godet (1982) proposes in his written work. Price of energy can not be cut off from the existence of phenomena, that even though can not be easily quantified, do affect in a significant level any action related to the energy scheme. For this reason, I totally accept the view of Godet, according to which forecasting apart from numbers should be based partially on assumptions, insight and judgment; each one of these factors depend a lot on the opinion of the individual. Experience curves can make accurate estimates about the evolution of technology cost. This requires the inclusion of the methodology limitations. Once the limitations are taken into account, experience curves can be an effective tool for every private or public firm dealing with technology issues. Experience curves describe the relation between past costs and cumulated production. This way it is possible for someone to estimate future costs through the extrapolation method. An important observation is that in order to obtain reliable experience curves, it is essential to apply the specific method to a wide set of cost-cumulative production numbers. Otherwise, the forecasts will be of low reliability. On the other hand, even when the learning curve is evaluated over a wide range of data, relatively dissimilar fits of the same set of numbers are possible to occur; each one of them is equally justifiable. The conclusion is that the output of a process can be described as the total of a procedure through which experience is gained and one for which no cost reductions occur. The experience gained from individual components explains why experience curves usually bend towards the horizontal axis; this indicates the slowdown of the cost change when a technology matures (Ferioli et al. 2009). The use of experience curves based on a single countrys data might designate many difficulties and uncertainties. When dealing with specific sectors of the energy market (e.g. wind energy) a global industry analysis is more useful; especially when someone is trying to forecast global cost issues related to the energy market (Junginger 2001). As mentioned in the first paragraph of this section, limitations of experience curves have to be taken into account. First of all, lets mention the advantages of this tool (Neij et al. 2003). 1. Experience curves describe how cost declines with cumulative production; the curve emphasizes the need of experience to realize cost reductions. It clearly illustrates that RDD programs cannot stand alone. 2. Experience curves can be used as a support in strategic decisions. 3. Experience curves can be used to analyze the effect of combined policy measures in terms of installed units and cost reductions. 4. Experience curves can be used to investigate the existence of national and international systems through which experience is possible to be obtained. 5. Experience curves can assist many individuals, such as financial analysts, industry, researchers and policy makers, in analyzing and assessing strategies and policy measures. Correspondingly, the limitations of the experience curves are the following (Neij et al. 2003): The success of this method depends on high-quality data. Unfortunately, uncertainty is an element that dominates in the international literature. Constructing trustworthy experience curves requires a basic understanding of the technology in question. In order to avoid misinterpretation during data analysis, specialists should be asked for their opinion before drawing any conclusions from experience curve analysis. Experience curves are a tool that must be combined with other methods of analysis of cost reduction sources. Even when a vast amount of data is available, it is possible to draw just conclusions on an aggregated level. For a detailed analysis, other data and tools are required. Experience curves do not show the effects of individual parameters, but the combined effect of several elements. The analysis of individual parameters requires additional analysis tools. The limitations of the experience curves arise from data availability. Due to their limitations complementary methods should also be taken into account. Experience curves should be considered as a generic tool for energy technology analysis. Technological forecasting is an effective tool in setting technology strategies. A large number of techniques have been evolved for technological forecasting. The quality of forecasts depends on the selected techniques. The selection can affect the accuracy and reliability of the forecast. According to Levary and Han (1995), a good choice of forecasting method should be based on the following factors: * Data availability * Degree of data validity * Number of variables affecting technology development * Degree of similarity between proposed technology and existing technologies According to the international literature, the elements that reduce the efficiency and accuracy of technological forecasting are the following (Mishra et al. 2002): Insufficiencies of Technological Forecasting I. Limitations of Quantitative Techniques  · Adaptability to current rate of technology change is low. * Many degrees of freedom in a rapid changing environment are difficult to address. * Complex mathematical models are difficult to comprehend and practice. * Accuracy, stability and reliability are negatively affected by long-term forecasts. * Lack of adequate past data. II. Limitations of Qualitative Techniques (Exploratory)  · Definition and selection of experts is difficult. * Individual bias enters into subjective assessment methods. * Validity of assumptions in scenario development tends to be uncertain with time. * Social, political and economic factors are usually neglected. * Sharp disruptions in trends and unexpected events are usually avoided. * Forecasts are sometimes carried out by someone who belongs to a specific organization. III. Limitations of Qualitative Techniques (Normative)  · The chosen data may be conveniently selected to fit a particular technology. * Technology at the bottom of the tree may be preconceived. IV. Human Related Problems with Forecasters * Selection of forecasters team is not correct. * There is a tendency to avoid information gathering and scanning prior to forecast. * Some forecasters lack imagination and/or nerve. V. Problems in Selection of Techniques * Monitoring prior to selection is lacking. * Validation of one technique by another is not carried out to reduce subjectivity. * Techniques do not incorporate performance measures. * Failures are not considered during the forecasts. According to the previous issues, the process of forecasting will deliver low reliability results if the limitations are not restricted. In order to improve the accuracy of technological forecasts, one of the issues that need to be addressed is the proper selection of technique. Apart from this, the complexity of technology has to be taken into account as well. Finally, in order to increase the validity of the results of the selected technique, it is recommended to use another technique; this will increase the reliability of the forecast (Mishra et al. 2002). It is generally accepted between forecast researchers that the combination of methods improves forecast accuracy (Mackay and Metcalfe 2002). Experts having access to high quality data and by taking into account the previously mentioned issues are able to make relatively high accuracy forecasts concerning the evolution in the sector of technology. On the other hand, someone may wonder how come people with no expertise in a specific technological sector, have the ability to make, most of the time, an almost accurate forecast about the technological changes that will occur in the future. There are many experiments carried out in various scientific areas that justify the ability of non-experts to make an accurate prediction. A research carried out by Austin Grigg, involved specialists, trainees and people with little to none expertise. The result of the experiment was the negligible difference (in favor of the experts) in the accuracy of the prediction between the specialists and the people with little knowledge (Armstrong 1980). This phenomenon is justified by the fact that people who do not have the necessary experience and tools for a scientific forecast, depend mainly on their insight (including myself) when they are asked to make a prediction. In the third section of this assessment project, the importance of the qualitative parameters was accepted. The most significant part of the qualitative element in a forecasting process is the insight. Its about the ability to predict something, not by depending on mathematical models and numbers, but on the identification of relationships and behaviors within a model, context, or scenario (Reay 2009). Therefore, when an individual is fully aware of the interactions among the qualitative parameters, that affect the evolution of an under-study issue and the issue itself, then a prediction carried out by this individual will have a high reliability degree, concerning the proper use and explanation of the qualitative data. The chosen case study for this section is the California electricity crisis of 2000 and 2001. The deregulation of the electricity market in California was expected to reduce the high retail prices of electricity. The result was exactly the opposite compared to the initial purpose; wholesale prices increased even more, customers experienced interruptions in supply of energy and utilities bankrupted. Among the crisis roots, the following factors are included:  · The absence of additional generating capacity.  · The unexpected dry season and spikes in natural gas prices (California was greatly depended on the operation of hydro plants and natural gas).  · The market infrastructure allowed power generation firms to control wholesale prices in the power exchange market.  · The delay and inability of regulators to predict the crisis and appropriate respond to this phenomenon. In 4.2, someone may observe that power plant outages increased during the crisis period; this affected in a high degree the magnitude of blackouts that customers experienced. The yellow strip bars indicate an average increase of 8759 MW for the months January, March and May of 2001 compared to the corresponding months of 1999 and 2000. According to 7, the dawn of deregulation indicates a rather smooth trend concerning the evolution of wholesale market prices; what was expected to occur had nothing to do with the sharp increase of prices that took place after that period. The increase in retail prices ( 8-2001 to 2003) was not expected, either because the deregulation was expected to establish low prices or because past data indicated that low prices ( 8-red dots) were likely to occur in the years to come. A key point, totally irrelevant to statistical data and concerning the flaws of forecasting techniques applied before the incident of California, will be analyzed in the next lines. When the State and the regulators of California implemented the deregulation system that was successfully adopted first by other countries (Woo et al. 2003), they proceeded in specific changes (e.g. imposition of retail price caps, partial deregulation) without trying to carry out a detailed study about the complex Californian energy scheme. In other words, what might had been successful somewhere else, it was considered as a guaranteed success in the case of California. Additionally, if the adjustment of energy market infrastructure and potential manipulations had been taken into account by examining the validity of alternative scenarios concerning the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain mechanisms able to respond to a future crisis would have probably been developed. According to the previous comments, it is obvious that forecasting methods that rely exclusively on historical data trends, they ignore the opinion of individuals and do not take into account the conditions that prevail in the environment where the under-analysis phenomenon develops. Thus, any forecasts made are of low validity and reliability. The following table contains the data for the installed nuclear capacity between 1965 and 1985. These data have been highlighted with the green color. Table 2: (Source: Nuclear Energy Agency n.d.). Years Installed Capacity (GW) 1965 5 1970 16 1975 72 1980 136 1985 253 1990 326 1995 345 2000 352 2002 359 2005 368 By using the available data of table 2, the period 1965-1985 will be used as a reference time (instead of 1967-1987). Respectively, predictions will be made for the period 1990-2005. Forecast method: Trend Source: Excel Years Installed Capacity (GW) 1965 5 1970 16 1975 72 1980 136 1985 253 1990 281.20 1995 342.80 2000 404.40 2002 429.04 2005 466.00 Forecast method: Linear extrapolation Source: Excel Years Installed Capacity (GW) 1965 5 1970 16 1975 72 1980 136 1985 253 1990 280.80 1995 342.40 2000 404.00 2002 428.64 2005 465.60 Forecast method: Logarithmic extrapolation Source: Excel Years Installed Capacity (GW) 1965 5 1970 16 1975 72 1980 136 1985 253 1990 282.64 1995 343.67 2000 404.55 2002 428.86 2005 465.28 Forecast method: Polynomial extrapolation Source: Excel Years Installed Capacity (GW) 1965 5 1970 16 1975 72 1980 136 1985 253 1990 ≈ 400 1995 ≈ 590 2000 ≈ 790 2002 ≈ 900 2005 ≈ 1000 It is obvious that among all the extrapolation-forecasting techniques, the one with the lowest divergence from the actual data is the logarithmic extrapolation method followed by the linear technique. On the other hand, none of the used methods was able to give high accuracy forecasts because the nuclear installed capacity evolution was highly affected by the incident of Chernobyl. The various mathematical methods can not express the fear of the scientific community to abandon the development of nuclear sector. According to 9, knowing that the incident of Chernobyl occurred in 1986, it is obvious that the rapid increase in nuclear installed capacity started to decline approximately 4 years (1990) after the incident of Chernobyl. Based on 10 and table 3, someone may conclude that the energy balance in Europe is highly depended on the operation of Gazprom. Table 3: (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 2008). Country 2006 % of Domestic NG Consumption Germany 37% Turkey 64% Italy 25% France 20% Czech Republic 79% Poland 47% Hungary 54% Slovakia 100% Austria 74% Finland 100% Romania 28% Bulgaria 96% Greece 82% Serbia Montenegro 87% Croatia 37% Slovenia 64% Switzerland 12% Skopje 100% According to table 3, Greece dependency on Gazproms natural gas is approximately 82%. This share indicates that a potential crisis in natural gas supply could lead to significant problems in sectors such as domestic heating and gas-fired power plants. Greece as a major energy user Greece has insignificant domestic reserves of oil and gas and relies greatly on energy imports. In 2006, the total energy consumption was 1.4 Quadrillion Btu. The distribution of this amount of energy can be located on 11. Although the share of natural in total energy consumption is not very high ( 11), the high dependency degree on Gazprom supply and the decreasing reserves of Greece in natural gas, would result in significant impacts in the energy balance of Greece. Provided that I would be somehow involved in the coordination of the energy planning of my country, I would propose the following measures. 1. Greece already has one natural gas import terminal situated at Revithoussa (DESFA 2007). The supplier is the Algerian company Sonatrach. The first thing that someone would have to do is to estimate the additional quantity that this company could provide to Greece on an annual basis. Then, proceed in reducing the imported natural gas from Gazprom by the same amount. 2. The countries currently facing problems with the natural gas supply from Russia are Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Skopje, Romania and Turkey. Partial supply decreases have also been reported by Austria (90%), Slovakia (70%), the Czech Republic (75%) and Hungary. Another solution to the problem could be the restart of Unit 3 at the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant. Kozloduy-3 was shutdown in December 2006 as part of an agreement with the European Union, which was concerned about inadequate safety levels. However, Bulgarias EU accession treaty apparently allows closed reactors to be temporarily re-started in the event of an acute energy shortage (Resnicoff 2009). 3. Rational use of energy, especially in sectors being supplied by natural gas, would be the last recommendation by my side. 9) The first and the third proposed measure can be characterized as a necessary but conservative approach. The proposed energy policy of Greece towards an energy crisis must ensure the energy security of the country. Taking into consideration the great dependence on energy imports in Greece, the out of the box solutions seems to be enough risky. More precisely, the improvement on the penetration of RES is a conservative and safe solution. Additionally energy efficiency and rational use of energy can be described as an incremental approach too. The out of the box solutions in the proposed response include new natural gas suppliers and improvement on energy storage capacity. The first solution is possible to lead to disturbances between Greece and Russia and the second one might require a large capital invested in various storage methods. Regardless the type of the response (out of the box or conservative-incremental approach) that someone might propose, both approaches have their merits and limitations. The adoption of a conservative approach offers a sense of security. Usually this kind of solutions can be accomplished easily due to the fact that includes measures that have been tested in previous similar situations. Also there are various limitations for this kind of approach. For instance, the increase of RES in Greek fuel mix has the following barriers. The legal framework and the authorization procedure can be described as complex procedures. In many cases this can frustrate many small investors. Another limitation is the inhibitive cost for the interconnection to the grid (mostly for reinforcement or construction of new network lines). Additionally for larger stations (more than _20MW) and in certain areas with very high wind potential there is lack of sufficient High Voltage (HV) system capacity. Due to enviro nmental restrictions and local community protests, expansion of the HV system is in some cases completely blocked. Finally, in the case of wind farms, public acceptability is also an issue in certain cases, basically due to visual impact or other reasons (Hatziargyriou, 2007). The adoption of an out o box solution in the case of an energy crisis might be risky. For this reason, this type of approach could be followed by conservative solutions ensuring that the energy security of the country will remain sufficient in any case. As it is mentioned before, Greece began receiving gas from Azerbaijan and the relative imports will likely increase as the Turkey-Greece interconnector is further utilized. This can be described as an out o box solution that can lead to imbalances between Greece and Russia, reducing the amount of Russian natural gas in Greece. On the other hand, the competition among various natural gas suppliers will have a positive effect on the corresponding energy prices. T o sum up, both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. The selection of an appropriate crisis management scheme is a complicate procedure and requires mature choices taken by veteran politicians. In addition an out o box solution for Greece may be a conservative incremental approach for another country that is an energy exporter or a country that has a stronger economy or better international relationships than Greece. 10) References Alam, S.M. (2006). Economic Growth With Energy [online]. [Accessed 24 December 2009]. Available from: . Armstrong, S.J. (1980). The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting [online]. [Accessed 1 January 2010]. Available from: . Cabral, L. (2002). The California energy crisis. Japan and the World Economy [online]. 14(3), [Accessed 5 January 2010], p.335-339. Available from: . California Energy Commission (2009). Utility-wide Weighted Average Retail Electricity Prices [online]. [Accessed 6 January 2010]. Available from: . Consumer Watchdog (2002). How Deregulation Let the Power Industry Steal $71 Billion From California [online]. [Accessed 5 January 2010]. Available from: . DESFA (2007). Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal at Revythousa [online]. [Accessed 7 January 2010]. Available from: . Energy Information Administration (2009). Greece Energy Data, Statistics and Analysis Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal [online]. [Accessed 7 January 2010]. Available from:

The Masque Of Red Death :: essays research papers

The Masque Of Red Death. A virus had come. It killed all that it touched. No one could survive, the red death. Nothing had ever been like it. Sharp pain dizziness and bleeding at the pores where its signs. When prince Prospero's town was half dead he called on 'a thousand hale and light hearted friends among the knights and dames of his court." He called them into a castle. Guarded with a metal gate. They stayed there for 6 months, Eluding the 'red death." They had every thing they need there. Entertainment, food and all other things needed to survive. It was at the end of the 5th or 6th month that he called for a masked ball or 'of the most unusual magnificence." Abstract art filled the room with beauty. The masque was held in a suite with 7 rooms. The rooms were most curios with turns at every corner and gothic windows. The colors of each room varied. The 7th chamber was all black. The only thing different about this room was that the windows did not match with every thing else. The pains where blood red, there was no light of any kind. In there stood giant ebony clock 'whose pendulum swung with a dull heavy activities clang." All activities ceased with the sound of each hour. Everything stooped as if dead. ' But when the echoes had full ceased, a light laughter at once pervaded the assembly…..'; The first 6 rooms crowed unlike the 7th, until the clock struck midnight. Everything ceased like before until the last echo of the clock sounded. Many people became aware of the masked figure. 'There arose a length from the whole company." First surprise then horror to this figure. When the eyes of Prince Prospero saw him he did not know what to do.

The Samurai and the Bushido Code Essay -- Japan, Elite Warriors, Bushi

The samurai were à ©lite warriors in Japan during the 1200’s to the early 1700’s. Fifth century Japan saw conflicts with Korea and China, but Japan had a very untrained army, with a clumsy Calvary, and poor infantry men (Blumberg 1). The reason was that horses were seen as a burden and were never bred to be strong, fast, and large for war purposes (Blumberg 2). In the 6th and 9th centuries, a series of rebellions in Japan began from the Emishi people of the northern home islands; these country people were very well-trained in mounted archery. The nimble Emishi would defeat the Japanese riders with ease (Blumberg 2). But during the war against the Emishi, Japan learned to breed horses for fighting, adapted new fighting methods, and developed new weapons. They replaced the slow, straight-sword with two curved blades that were faster and lighter. For the next 350 years, infantry was replaced with mounted archers, and we start to see the 13th century samurai form (Blumber g 3). The Bushido Code, the code that all samurai follow, helped form medieval Japan. The warrior class and ruling class in the 13th century to the 17th century were known as the samurai (Clark 1). The samurai were skilled in archery, swordsmanship, horseback riding, and martial arts: the ability to kill with their bare hands (Clark 2). The two swords that the samurai used were the katana, a curved, medium-sized blade used for two-handed combat, and the wakizashi, a dagger or small-bladed weapon for thrusting (Blumberg 7). The samurai specialized in mounted archery as well. They had a medium sized, very flexible bow that made firing arrows from a horse easier. With Japan's newly trained and bred horses, along with the discipline of the samurai, it made for an uns... ... the enemy's foot soldiers were close, the samurai would dismount and use their swords (Blumberg 9). That would change in the 15th century when the Chinese started to use an early version of the musket. The Japanese then had to change their fighting techniques to use spears so as not to have to dismount their horses. This was useful, since they could charge without stop, allowing them more time in between the Chinese gunfire (Blumberg 12). The Bushido Code has been around since the 13th century and is the way of the samurai. The samurai was a powerful ruling class and warrior class in medieval Japan. The samurai were powerful warriors with great respect and ethics for their country. They impacted modern Japan by passing on the high ethical and moral standards still recognized today, and it is the reason why Japan is one of the friendliest countries in the world.

The Man In The Moon :: essays papers

The Man In The Moon I lie on the grass, staring above me, my arms stretch high into the starlit sky, they warp and twist and elongate and they reach up and my hands grasp the moon and its mine and no-one else's and my fingers become a part of it and then I'm the moon, look at me I'm the Man in the Moon and I Can See All, I Can See You, and my arm stretches down and my giant finger uncurls and points and my voice deep and booming says ITS YOU and the person I'm pointing at looks straight up at me and his arms are reaching towards me and he's smiling and then I realise with a start that its me. I get up and shake my head. Then I lie down again and shake my head. Then I sit up and shake my head and rub my eyes and scratch my head and yawn and this seems to work and so I get up. I lie down again: it didn't work. I think I'll stay here a while and think about things until I can get up and stand and maybe walk again. I may be some time. I'm looking up into the sky. Its night but its not that dark. The moon's out and so are the stars and there are no clouds in the sky. True, its not as bright as it is, say, during the day, but nevertheless it's relatively bright. It's a damn sight brighter then the inside of a really dark cave with your head covered in a thick, thick blanket with your eyes closed. But ours is not to quibble on the brightness, or lack thereof, of this night in question. So, the state of the night cleared up, I can continue. I'm looking into the sky and I'm lying on the grass, which is a little strange because grass is not, as it were, the most abundant of materials in this place. I'm lying on a small patch of such grass that is surrounded on all sides by sand. In the distance I can hear the sea and its crashing against the beach and I worry about all the poor little creatures caught in it.

Analysis of Data Mining

ITKM Analysis of Data Mining The article Data Mining by Christopher Clifton analyzed how different types of data mining techniques have been applied in crime detection and different outcomes. Moreover, the analysis proposed how the different data mining techniques can be used in detection of different form of frauds. The analysis gave the advantages and disadvantages of using data mining in different operation. The major advantage was that data mining enables analysis of large quantities of data. This is important since such data cannot be analyzed manually since the data is often complex for humans to understand.However, data mining techniques have been used for deceitful purposes such as inappropriate disclosure of private information. The article analyzed different data mining techniques. Predictive modeling is one such technique used in estimation of particular target attribute. Descriptive modeling was another technique, which entails dividing data into groups. The other techniq ues described include pattern mining used in identification of rules relating to different data pattern and anomaly detection, which entails determining the unusual instances that, may arise when using the different data-mining model. ) What is the title and what was the objective of the study/analysis) The title of the article was data mining. The article focused on skills in knowledge discovery can be used in analysis of large volumes of data sets. According to the article, data mining was invented about one and a half decades ago due to the advances in artificial intelligence. Discovery of expert system, genetic algorithms, neural networks, and machine leaning led to develop ways to adapt these schemes and use them for data mining purposes. Related article: What Business Can Learn From Text MiningThe objective of the article was to give a history of data mining, the different types of data mining and the application of data mining in different fields such as business, scientific research, as well as by security agents in detection of crimes and terrorist activities (Clifton Web). Regarding the history of data mining, the article stated that data mining was first implemented in credit card fraud detection. The 2) What data mining algorithm was used (i. e. cluster analysis, decision tree, neural network, other) and describe the algorithm?The analysis used both decision tree algorithm and clustering algorithm. By using decision tree algorithm, the information regarding data mining techniques was grouped by making use of predefined knowledge. The analysis entails description of different crime detection techniques. Moreover, the most appropriate technique for detection of different types of crimes was suggested based on the profitability of using any single technique. Using clustering technique, the data was divided into different groups to obtain certain patterns. Such pattern included classification to data mining techniques based on their uses.This was used to develop ways in which the different techniques can be applied in business (Clifton Web). 3) What was the outcome of the analysis, and how did it benefit the business, if there was a benefit? The analysis identified the various data mining techniques, their applications, strengths and weaknesses. The analysis was important to the business world. For example, the analysis on use of data mining in detection of credit card fraud identified the challenges involved on the process. This was crucial since it gave insights on how different techniques can be developed to make data mining more effective in credit card fraud detection.Another reason why the analysis was important to the business world was that it analyzed the different data mining approa ches such as predictive modeling, descriptive modeling, pattern mining, and anomaly detection. The analysis explained how the different techniques work. Moreover, the analysis was crucial since it provided insights on how different techniques can be used in detection of fraud crime in different types of business transaction. Moreover, it highlighted the shortcoming on the different techniques. This is crucial since it provided intuitions on areas that can be improved to make the techniques more effective (Clifton Web).An additional reason why the analysis was important is that it pinpointed the issues that arise when using data mining techniques in fraud detection. One such issue is privacy concern. This was crucial since it gave insights on how the business world can continue using data mining techniques to combat crime without risking loss of reputation. Moreover, the companies can use data mining for fraud detection crimes while making less error such as those of biasness (Clifto n Web). Conclusion Data mining has undergone modification with technological advancement. Data mining play a great role in enabling detection of problems such as frauds.This is because it enables analysis of large and complex quantities of data. In the article about data mining, Clifton used both decision tree and cluster analysis to assess the different types of data mining. By using decision tree, the author group data mining based on the techniques used. By using clustering, the data was grouped to obtain certain patterns. The analysis was important to business world since it provided insights on how the different data mining techniques work. Works Cited Clifton, Christopher. â€Å"data mining . † Encyclopedia Bratanicca (n. d. ): 1-3. Web. .

Explain the process of counseling in detail

The initial interview describes the first contact with the client who is the individual in need of counselling. It completes the intake process, a sort of admission of the client into the formalities of counselling. Importance of the Initial Interview: The initial interview is of much importance for several reasons: 1) It helps the counsellor get to know the client better, and make appropriate plan for intervention.These plans include taking up the client for counselling or referring the client to another, appropriate, treatment service. 2) It helps the client to get to know the counsellor etter, and to obtain reassurance and even crisis support, when necessary. 3) It affords the counsellor the opportunity to explain the nature and goals of counselling, and to agree upon the practical arrangements for counselling with the client. In short, the initial interview will help the client and the counsellor to begin the process of understanding and accepting one another.The initial intervie w normally should proceed along the following lines: 1) Statement of the problem in clear, unambiguous terms 2) Systematic evaluation of the problem, its causes and its effects 3) Identification of circularity 4) Feedback to the client 5) Evaluation of the client's motivation for counselling 6) Clarification of expectations 7) Setting of goals 8) Establishing a contract 9) Making the practical arrangements for counselling. Let us examine each of these steps that will enable us to actually understand the process involved.Statement of the problem in Clear, Unambiguous Terms More frequently, their thoughts are muddled, and heavily laden with emotional content. Clients do not say, â€Å"l am anxious†, or â€Å"l am depressed†. Instead, they frequently commence with an account of what happened, where and when and how. Often, a client comes for counselling because he has been compelled to do so by a family member, friend, or well-wisher. Such clients are, more often than not , unlikely to cooperate whole-heartedly with counselling.Clients sometimes have difficulties in complying with the practical arrangements for counselling; for example, they may reside too far away, or may not be able to obtain leave from work. A greater problem, however, is that many clients are unwilling to make the personal or life-style changes that are necessary if they are to benefit from counselling. For . example, a husband, ho is convinced that all his problems originate in his wife's behaviour, may not be willing to accept that he is responsible in many ways for them, and that he needs to make certain changes in his attitudes and behaviour if his marriage is to survive.Or, while a drug addict may realize that his addiction is ruining his life, he may not be willing to give up the company of the friends who are encouraging him in his deviant habits. It is important that the client realizes that the counsellor can only facilitate change; the client must make the primary effor t. Breaking maladaptative habits is difficult. Making life-style changes is difficult. The client must be willing to make the necessary efforts with the guidance of the counsellor. It is important, for several reasons, to assess motivations that led the client to seek counselling.If the counsellor understands that the client is poorly motivated for counselling, he can provide an appropriate feedback to the client. Then, in consultation with the client, he can arrive at a pragmatic decision concerning whether or not to proceed with counselling. If a client shows poor motivation and the counsellor decides not to go ahead with counselling, he saves for himself, and his client, a lot oftime. He also saves himself a lot of heartburn; had he proceeded with therapy, and had the client shown poor progress, he would in all likelihood have blamed himself, or questioned his competence.If a client shows poor motivation and the counsellor does decide to proceed with therapy, he would probably se t far more modest goals than he would have had the client been more motivated. It may be noted here that the evaluation of motivation is an ongoing process. A client may begin counselling enthusiastically but may later weaken his resolve when he realizes what behavioural changes are necessary. Clarification of Expectations The counsellor needs to find out what the client expects from counselling.Some clients tend to believe that once they tell the counsellor their problems, it is the counsellor's responsibility (and not their own) to fmd the solutions. Some clients believe that the counsellor will magically work out solutions for problems that have existed for years. The counsellor should, right from the early stages of counselling, put his client on guard against unreasonable expectations, such as expectations of dramatic cures, total cures, one-sided compromises, etc. From a practical perspective, t is imperative to ascertain what the client believes will occur during counselling. Some clients believe that the counsellor will put them on a couch and psychoanalyze them. Other clients believe that the counsellor will ask questions about their childhood. Doubts, misconceptions and myths that clients come with should, General goals of counselling are to reduce emotional distress, to reduce dysfunctional behaviour, to promote adaptation, to develop potentials, and to assist in decision-making. After obtaining a general understanding of the client's problems and expectations, specific goals of therapy need to be set.The counsellor needs to guide the client in the setting of specific goals because the client is quite likely to be uncertain of what may be expected from counselling. Such goals are best explicitly stated as specific emotional and behavioural changes that are acceptable and desirable to the client and to society. Thus, an ethical element exists in all goal- setting exercises. It is important to break down important goals into their logical sub- componen ts or sub-goals, which, by virtue of such identification, are more easily tackled.For example, when engaging in marital counselling, goals may be stated as follows: 1) Mrs. A should feel less depressed. 2) Mr. & Mrs. A should improve their understanding and cooperation on the following issues: a) Disciplining of their children; b) Distribution of household responsibilities; c) Sex d) Relationship with the in-laws etc. Stating goals in such a specific manner may generate a long, laundry-like list; however, there is no bar to the number of goals as long as all the goals are specific, clearly defined, reasonable, and attainable.